# The book Excel Forecasting for Dummies by Conrad Carlberg organizes sales data, charts a baseline and forecast trends with Mi

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Excel Forecasting for Dummies’

The concepts from the book are applied in the pharmaceutical organization that I work for in many ways. Exponential smoothing is used to handle the company’s bad forecasts that happened earlier in order to improve the next forecast. The analysis pack that comes as a free gift when one buys Microsoft excel is used in the company to make forecasts for the managers. The data is put into charts so that the managers can see what is going on.

The book depicts a lot of statistical application tools that can be applied in a pharmaceutical organization. For instance, you can be is interested in determining the effect on sales revenue of certain pharmaceutical product after some promotional strategies. This might require some data on advertising. The amount spent on advertising these products can be collected. Besides, the amount of sale of the products as well can be collected. These data after being collected can be used to calculate if there is a relationship between the advertisement placed on the pharmaceutical products and sales. This relationship is usually called correlation coefficient in mathematical statistics.

The correlation coefficient usually ranges between negative one to positive one. A correlation of negative one means there is a strong inverse correlation, a correlation of zero means there is no correlation between the two variables; whereas a correlation of positive one means there is a strong direct relationship between the two variables in question and therefore we can make conclusion whether it is worth continuing with the advertisement on the products or not.

The second application tool that can be employed in a pharmaceutical firm is the ANOVA, which means ANalysis Of VAriance. There are essentially three distinct ANOVA tools. None is specifically useful for forecasting, but each of the tools can help you understand the set of data that you want to forecast using. The ANOVA tools help you differentiate among sections. For example, it can help you to determine whether a particular sample of your customers buy a particular drug compared to another different set of sample of the population.

The third statistical tool that is more paramount is descriptive Statistics. Just as the name suggests; descriptive Statistics tool is used to describe the set of data given. For example, we can use this tool to depict the average, the standard deviation of the data. The data can as well be described pictorially; by being represented in various forms of data presentation forms. The data can be represented graphically using frequency polygons, tabular representation, pie charts among others. These various types of pictorial representation of data helps one to have a mental picture of the nature of data and thus gives us a further insight and understanding of the data. In a pharmaceutical organization, this tool can be handy in visualizing sales of the pharmaceutical products as well as predicting future sales of the products.

In addition, the use of Moving Average can be employed in a pharmaceutical firm. A moving average, just as the name suggests, shows the average of results over a given period of time. The first one might be the average for, December, January, February, and March; the second would then be the average for January, February, March, and April; and may continue in that trend. This is a method of forecasting tends to center on the sign. That is it tells us what is what is actually taking place in the baseline and it can help a pharmaceutical organization to minimize the noise that is random fluctuations in the baseline having the data collected in the past.

Works cited

Carlberg, Conrad. Excel Sales Forecasting for Dummies. New Jersey: Wiley Publishing,

2005.

Harvey, Greg. Excel 2010 Workbook for Dummies. Workbook edition. For Dummies,

2010.

Hesse, Rick. Using Excel to Forecast: A Review of Two Recent How-To Books. SoftwareReview.