As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years:
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Transplants | 48.0 | 52.0 | 53.0 | 57.0 | 57.0 |
The director of medical services predicted 6 years ago that demand in year 1 would be 44.0 surgeries.
a) Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 44.0 | 46.4 | 49.8 | 51.7 | 54.9 | 56.2 |
For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.60 and the given forecast for year 1, MAD = 4.1 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place).
Using exponential smoothing with a of 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1, the forecasts for years 2 through 6 are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 44.0 | 47.6 | 51.6 | 52.9 | 56.6 | 57.0 |
For the forecast made using exponential smoothing with a = 0.90 and the given forecast for year 1, MAD = 2.9 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place).
b) Forecasts for years 4 through 6 using a 3-year moving average are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | 51.0 | 54.0 | 55.7 |
For forecasts made using a 3-year moving average, MAD = 4.5 surgeries (round your response to one decimal place).
c) Forecasts for years 1 through 6 using the trend-projection method are (round your responses to one decimal place):
| Year | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast |
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